The record
What the station rules did
The last year, Sep 2025 to Oct 2026. This page is about a calmer ride: the stance book’s worst decline was −2.7%, while returning +8.0% over the year. Smooth path and limited drawdown matter more here than racing an index.
3180 month-end readings. A usable fair value on 2284. Insider forms on 2917.
Stance book
Worst decline
−2.7%
Equal weight of the same names fell −6.2% at worst. That dashed line is only on the drawdown chart.
Stance book
Year return
+8.0%
Sep 2025 – Oct 2026
Calm ratio
Year return ÷ worst decline
2.94
A calmer book can trail a roaring market. That is acceptable here. The rules step aside or trim when the path looks crowded, so the year return is judged beside the worst decline, not beside the S&P 500.
Drawdown path
Worst decline was 3.5 points shallower than equal weight.
This is the comparison that matters: strategy drawdown versus always-equal weight of the same names. Indexes stay off the growth chart so the eye stays on calm.
Strategy path
Growth of $1 under the live stance rules. Each close, after a 0.10% cost on each buy or sell. Sep 2025 to Oct 2026.
The growth chart shows only the stance book—no S&P, Nasdaq, or equal-weight race. Drawdown is where equal weight appears, so depth is easy to judge.
Each new call, and the next year
A call is the first month a name enters that stance. Later months in the same stance are not counted again. The next-year figure is versus the S&P 500.
| Stance | Calls | Next year vs S&P 500 | Ahead of the S&P 500 | Down 15% within 60 sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A place to buy | 4 | +2.8% | 67% | 0% |
| Build slowly | 47 | −3.9% | 37% | 30% |
| Hold | 165 | +3.8% | 44% | 18% |
| Trim | 112 | +1.6% | 39% | 17% |
| Step aside | 10 | −13.9% | 22% | 20% |
How this was counted
- Each month-end uses the same stance function as the live station, and only filings and insider forms dated on or before that day.
- A year of free cash flow more than 1.6 times this company's own recent median is not used as fair value.
- A name stays full unless the business breaks, then it goes to cash. A severe item, or the S&P 500 closing 10% under its 200-session average while the stock is not extended, cuts it to half. Strong revenue growth keeps a full position through a light warning.
- Fair value in this record is an 8% yield on free cash flow. The vendor's discounted cash flow has no history, so it cannot be replayed.
- The invested book uses weights of 100, 100, 100, 50, and 0, scaled to stay fully invested. The cash book leaves the rest in cash earning nothing.
- Each buy or sell costs 0.10%. The live path and this page use about the last year of closes so the year return and the worst decline are easy to read together.
- The list was fixed in advance and includes names that later did poorly. Survivor bias remains; this is not the whole market.
Names in the book
The stance book sizes each name by the live rules. Cash left aside earns nothing in this record.
- AAPL
- MSFT
- NVDA
- INTC
- CSCO
- ORCL
- CRM
- GOOGL
- META
- DIS
- AMZN
- HD
- NKE
- MCD
- JPM
- BAC
- V
- GS
- JNJ
- UNH
- PFE
- MRK
- WMT
- PG
- KO
- CAT
- BA
- HON
- XOM
- CVX
- ADP
- ACN
- NOW
- MU
- LRCX
- NFLX
- EA
- TTWO
- TMUS
- OMC
- TSLA
- BKNG
- TJX
- ROST
- MAR
- PEP
- MDLZ
- KMB
- GIS
- KR
- WFC
- MS
- BLK
- SCHW
- PNC
- LLY
- ABT
- TMO
- DHR
- AMGN
- GE
- UNP
- ETN
- EMR
- GD
- EOG
- OXY
- MPC
- PSX
- HAL
- SHW
- APD
- ECL
- NEM
- FCX
- NEE
- AEP
- EXC
- SRE
- XEL
- PLD
- AMT
- EQIX
- SPG
- O
- IBM
- TXN
- QCOM
- AMAT
- T
- VZ
- CMCSA
- LOW
- SBUX
- GM
- F
- COST
- CL
- PM
- MO
- C
- USB
- AXP
- ABBV
- BMY
- GILD
- CVS
- UPS
- DE
- LMT
- MMM
- COP
- SLB
- DUK
- SO
A record of the decision rules over the latest year. Not a forecast, not a personal order, and not a claim that calmer always beats the market.